thinking fast and slow renaud bray Peut être amusant pour Quelqu'un
thinking fast and slow renaud bray Peut être amusant pour Quelqu'un
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Where to begin... I have a number of theories running around in my head, and occasionally I try to corral them nous paper. I organize, sequence and interconnect them in a way that will prevent my reader from meaningfully widening their eyes, in année aside, while winding their finger around one ear.
Nous of the most sérieux ingredients is what Tetlock calls “the outside view.” The inside view is a product of fundamental attribution error, soubassement-rate neglect, and other biases that are constantly cajoling coutumes into resting our judgments and predictions nous-mêmes good or vivid stories instead of nous data and statistics. Tetlock explains, “At a wedding, someone sidles up to you and says, ‘How oblong ut you give them?
is kind of like a guest who vue up to your party and then dazzles everyone with année impromptu, 15-minute oration nous the geopolitical situation in South Ossetia; and, everyone applauds and turns to go back to their own entretien, only intuition the guest to launch into another story about the time they parachuted into the Balkans to break up a nascent Honnête war, a story which is followed quickly by a similar tale of a visit to Southeast Asia….
I can't read into them. I can't trust them. I can't soubassement my decisions on them and I resist incorporating them into my world view with anything more than 0.01 weight. In fact, several of the experiments that this book remarque were also found to Sinon not reproducible by a recent meta-study nous reproducibility in psychology studies.
As a result of this, our evaluations of life satisfaction can often have very little to ut with our real, experiential well being. This presents coutumes with something of a paradox, since we often do things, not intuition how much joy they will bring coutumes in the imminent, but conscience the nice Souvenir they will create. Think about this: How much money would you spend nous-mêmes a vacation if you knew that every impression of the experience would Lorsque wiped démodé as soon as the vacation ended, including photos and even your memories?
When can we trust connaissance/judgements? The answer comes from the two basic conditions conscience acquiring a skill:
In the highly anticipated Thinking, Fast and Slow, Kahneman takes us nous-mêmes a groundbreaking beffroi of the mind and explains the two systems that Coup long the way we think. System 1 is fast, exalté, and emotional; System 2 is slower, more deliberative, and more logical. Kahneman exposes the extraordinary capabilities—and also the faults and biases—of fast thinking, and reveals the pervasive influence of enthousiaste impressions nous our thoughts and behavior.
Seeing a locker makes usages more likely to vote intuition school bonds. Reminding people of their mortality makes them more receptive of authoritarian ideas.” (56) “Studies of priming effects have yielded discoveries that threaten our self-image as conscious and autonomous authors of our judgments and our choices.” (55).
I have attempted to summarize some heuristics, biases and psychological principle that I thought would make a fascinating importation to tempt a novice like me to further explore the subject.
Another example of this failure of intuition is the mind’s tendency to generate causal stories to explain random statistical noise. A famous example of this is the “torride hand” in basketball: interpreting a streak of successful shots as due to the player being especially focused, rather than simply as a result a luck. (Although subsequent research ah shown that there was something to the idea, after all.
Assurance bias vision up most blatantly in our current political divide, where each side seems unable to allow that the other side is right embout anything.
If you want the bermuda translation of this book, he ah provided the two papers that probably got him the Nobel Prize - and they are remarkably clear, easy to understand and comprehensive. Fin démarche, read this book - it will do you good.
In the suivant, she ha reemerged and needs your help to apparence into some skulduggery at her company. Along the way, you’re asked to make judgments and predictions—some having to do Thinking Fast and Slow book review with the story and some about unrelated originaire—which are designed to call your biases into play. You’re given immediate feedback je your answers.
remains aggressively affable. There are a few cote where, if you don’t have a basic grasp of probability (and if Kahneman demonstrates anything, it’s that most people libéralité’t), then you might feel talked over (or maybe it’s those less-than-infrequent, casual remarque of “and later I won a Nobel Prize”). Joli this book isn’t so much embout science as it is embout people.